Beryl at Its Weakest Point
Beryl is currently at its weakest point in over a week, having weakened due to land interaction as it moved quickly over the Yucatan Peninsula. The tropical storm now has 60 mph winds and has slowed to 12 mph.
Recent Landfall and Current Path
At 6:05 a.m. yesterday, Beryl made landfall south of the island of Cozumel and hit the mainland near Tulum, Mexico. A large ridge that had kept Beryl moving west has shifted east, allowing Beryl to move more north towards the US.
Forecast and Potential Strengthening
Beryl is now back over the warm, open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and forecast models indicate that it may strengthen back into a strong Category 1 hurricane or even a weak Category 2 over the weekend. A US landfall is anticipated along the Texas Gulf Coast, with both the GFS and European models showing a potential landfall near Corpus Christi on Monday morning.
Model Predictions and Spaghetti Plots
Currently, the GFS model (black) shows a slightly weaker storm compared to the European model (white). However, both models agree on a landfall near Corpus Christi, as indicated by spaghetti plots.
Expected Impact and Rainfall Totals
Rainfall totals for central Texas, including Corpus Christi, Galveston, Austin, and Houston, are expected to range from 7-10 inches, with isolated areas potentially receiving more than a foot of rain. In addition to heavy rainfall, the region will likely experience storm surges of 3-5 feet and tropical storm-force winds.
.
Concerns Over Flooding
A significant concern is the potential for devastating flooding, especially since the region was recently impacted by flooding from Tropical Storm Alberto less than a month ago. Beryl’s expected slowdown once over Texas could exacerbate the flooding situation.
